Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
